Work in progress

The short- and medium-term impact of hurricanes on economic output
(with J. Ferguson and C. Parmeter)

The economics of climate gentrification
(with D. Kelly and C. Timmins)

Disadvantaged populations clustering near polluting industries
(with J. Lunghi and T. Garg)

Pricing strategic responses in real estate markets with Hedonic methods
(with D. Kelly and C. Timmins)

Short-term impacts and disparities in health outcomes due to hurricanes (with I. Rudik and A. Hollingsworth)

Whale dynamics and carbon sequestration potential
(with M. Savoca and J.C. Villaseñor-Derbez)

Water market dynamics in the presence of environmental variability
(with A. Ayres)

The socio-economic benefits of augmented observations in hurricane forecasts
(with I. Rudik and D. Cardoso)

The impacts of tropical cyclones on trade flows in the Pacific Ocean
(with K. Abe, J.C Villaseñor-Derbez and K. Tanaka)

The impact of hurricanes on commercial fisheries in the US

Working papers

The impact of proximity to urban areas on the success of fishing cooperatives: evidence from Mexico

[Under review]
(with E. Wintergalen)

Due to global trends in coastal development and population growth, a growing number of small-scale fishing (SSF) communities are within or near urban areas. Organization theory and local-level research suggest that these urban transformations may disincentivize certain forms of SSF self-organization while promoting others. These ideas have potentially important implications for SSF governance but have not been tested on a national scale. To fill this gap, this study uses data from Mexico to establish the relationship between fishing cooperatives’ travel time to the nearest urban center and the probability they are defunct. Results show substantial evidence of an association between a cooperative’s odds of survival and its distance from the nearest large population center. Specifically, a cooperative that is less than half an hour from a large urban center is about twice as likely to go defunct compared to a similar cooperative that is farther away. This result suggests that cooperatives in or near urban areas may face greater challenges compared to their more isolated counterparts. These challenges may include lower transaction costs of commercialization, ecosystem degradation, and the availability of alternative livelihood opportunities. Policymakers in Mexico and beyond should be aware of the possibility that urban fishers may be choosing alternative forms of self-organization, such as patron-client arrangements, that are less conducive to sustainable resource use and participatory governance. Additionally, conservation initiatives that rely upon long-term collaboration with fishing cooperatives may be likelier to succeed in locations farther away from cities, where cooperatives are less likely to go defunct.

The Social Value of Predicting Hurricanes

[Under review]
(with I. Rudik) Link
Coverage: NBER NPR - Marketplace NPR - Marketplace
Planet Money - The Indicator

What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for the universe of land-falling US hurricanes between 2005–2022. We find higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending. Erroneous under-forecasts of wind speed increase hurricane damage and after-hurricane rebuilding expenditures. Our main contribution is a new theoretically-grounded approach for estimating the marginal value of forecast improvements. We find that the average annual improvement reduced total per-hurricane costs, inclusive of unobserved protective spending, by over $500,000 per county. Improvements since 2007 reduced costs by 19%, averaging $2 billion per hurricane. This exceeds the annual budget for all federal weather forecasting.

The Economic Impact of Modern Piracy on Global Shipping

[Undergoing revisions]
(with G. McDermott, G. McDonald, J.C. Villaseñor-Derbez) Link

Maritime transport has been historically susceptible to piracy. While broad assessments suggest the impact of modern piracy causes large economic losses, the literature lacks quantification of the magnitude of the costs and the behavioral responses that underpin them. Here, we combine theory and a unique geospatial dataset combining more than 26 million shipping voyages and thousands of pirate encounters across the globe to test for behavioral responses and quantify their private and public costs. We find that shippers modify their path along a route to avoid locations with known pirate encounters, which increases voyage distance and duration leading to significant increases in fuel and labor costs estimated to be over US$1.5 billion/year. Additionally, emission of CO2, NOx, and SOx due to increased fuel consumption results in environmental damages valued at US$5.1 billion per year. Together, our results provide the first global estimates linking the presence of pirates to individual behavior and aggregate transportation cost, as well as its environmental impact, with major implications for the shipping industry and maritime security at a global scale.

Peer-reviewed

Wintergalen, E. W., Fulton, S., & Molina, R., 2024. Trans-Sector Livelihood Resilience in an Urban Small-Scale Fishing Community. The Journal of Development Studies, 1–20. Link

Dario, C., Molina, R., & Kelly, D. L., 2024. Public preferences for coastal adaptation: Economic evidence from a discrete choice experiment for hard structures and nature-based solutions in Miami, Florida. Marine Policy, 165, 106217. Link

Molina, R, Costello, C. and Kaffine, D., 2024. Sharing and expanding the co-benefits of conservation. Ecological Economics, 218(2024), 108113. Link

Ovando, D., Liu, O., Molina, R., Parma, A. and Szuwalski, C., 2023. Global effects of marine protected areas on food security are unknown. Nature, 621(7979), E34-E36. Link

Kelly, D. and Molina, R., 2023. Adaptation Infrastructure and its Effects in Property Values in the Face of Climate Impacts. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 10(6), p.1405-1438. (Lead Article) Link
Coverage: UM-Press JAERE

Pearson, H.C., Savoca, M.S., Costa, D.P., Lomas, M.W., Molina, R., Pershing, A.J., Smith, C.R., Villaseñor-Derbez, J.C., Wing, S.R. and Roman, J., 2022. Whales in the carbon cycle: can recovery remove carbon dioxide?. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 38(3), p.238-249. Link
Coverage: Bloomberg CNN Washington Post Business Insider Fast Company

Wintergalen, E.W., Oyanedel, R., Villaseñor-Derbez, J.C., Fulton, S. and Molina, R., 2022. Opportunities and challenges for livelihood resilience in urban and rural Mexican small-scale fisheries. Ecology and Society, 27(3), p.46. Link

Molina, R., 2022. The lack of property rights can make natural disasters worse: The case of small-scale fisheries in Chile. Ecological Economics, 200, p.107540. Link

Liu, O.R. and Molina, R., 2021. The persistent transboundary problem in marine natural resource management. Frontiers in Marine Science, p.1292. Link

Molina, R., Letson, D., McNoldy, B., Mozumder, P. and Varkony, M., 2021. Striving for Improvement: The Perceived Value of Improving Hurricane Forecast Accuracy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(7), p.E1408-E1423. Link
Coverage: UM-Press

Ovando, D., Liu, O., Molina, R. and Szuwalski, C., 2021. Models of marine protected areas must explicitly address spatial dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(23), p.e2025958118. Link

Costello, C. and Molina, R., 2021. Transboundary marine protected areas. Resource and Energy Economics, 65, p.101239. Link
Coverage: UM-Press

Palacios-Abrantes, J., Herrera-Correal, J., Rodríguez, S., Brunkow, J. and Molina, R., 2018. Evaluating the bio-economic performance of a Callo de hacha (Atrina maura, Atrina tuberculosa & Pinna rugosa) fishery restoration plan in La Paz, Mexico. PloS one, 13(12), p.e0209431. Link

Liu, O.R., Molina, R., Wilson, M. and Halpern, B.S., 2018. Global opportunities for mariculture development to promote human nutrition. PeerJ, 6, p.e4733. Link

Molina, R., Cerda, R., González, E. and Hurtado, F., 2012. Simulation model of the scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) farming in northern Chile: some applications in the decision making process. Latin American Journal of Aquatic Research, 40(3), p.679-693. Link

Book chapters

Norambuena, R., González, E., Molina, R. & Gomez, A. 2017. Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture in Chile (Chapter 10 – Aquaculture). In: Phillips, B. & Pérez, M. (eds) The Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA. Link
Coverage: Aqua

González, E., Norambuena, R., Molina, R. & Thomas, F. 2013. Evaluación de potenciales impactos y reducción de la vulnerabilidad de la acuicultura al cambio climático en Chile [Potential Impacts and Reduction of the Aquaculture Vulnerability to Climate Change in Chile]. In: Cambio climático, pesca y acuicultura en América Latina: Potenciales impactos y desafíos para la adaptación. Taller FAO/Centro de investigación Oceanográfica en el Pacifico Sur Oriental (COPAS), Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile. FAO Actas de Pesca y Acuicultura. No. 29. Roma, FAO, 275-335p. Link